Ukraine's much-hyped counteroffensive has proven a costly debacle so far. But international relations and security analyst Mark Sleboda warned that Kiev and its NATO backers may still have some tricks up their sleeves.
The Kiev regime appears to be cynically throwing men and machines against solid Russian defenses — but all mat not be as it seems, a military commentator says.
One week into the Ukrainian counteroffensive and the Ukrainian army has already lost thousands of casualties, along with up to 15 of the vaunted German Leopard 2 tanks, 13 M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) supplied by the US and five of the French AMX-10 RC light tanks.
Security Analyst Mark Sleboda told Sputnik that Ukraine's military chiefs were to blame for sending their troops into the killing fields.
"Currently there is fighting along pretty much every line of engagement between Russia and Ukraine right now, except for the Kherson area where the recent flooding has made combat impossible," Sleboda noted.
He said the Kiev regime was sending troops forward in NATO-supplied IFVs and armoured personnel carriers (APCs), supported by tanks and artillery — including US-made HIMARS rocket launchers.
"But they're doing it into echelon to Russian defenses that have been formed over months," Sleboda stressed. "Five layers of defense, trenches, concrete fortifications, pillboxes, bunkers, tank obstacles like dragon's teeth."
But he said that most significant was that Russian forces had "created mazes of minefields" which have taken a significant toll on attacking Ukrainian vehicles.
"it sounds rather cynical, but right now the strategy that the Kiev regime appears to be using to clear the minefields is over the vehicles and bodies of its territorial defense units," Sleboda said. "And the horrific casualties that are resulting from this are pretty high."
He said the Ukrainian plan right now appeared to be based on "hoping to punch a hole in the line somewhere."
"And then presumably a very large reserve force, supported by a the majority of the western main battle tanks, will seek to exploit that," Sleboda ventured. "But then even so, to make it even through one line of defense and to face several lines more, each actually progressively more significant than the others, It seems a very bad situation."
But the security expert warned against complacency on the Russian side, saying he expected "something more cunning" from the Ukrainian armed forces.
"Once the waters recede from the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, I expect some kind of multiple pronged attack, including amphibious assaults against a lower Kakhovka reservoir towards Energodar and the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant," he said. "But I would presume that Russia is also prepared to defend that there as well."
"NATO has been wargaming this out for half a year. This is the most hyped, announced offensive in world history," Sleboda stressed. "I'm expecting that there has to be a curveball. It can't be this straight up playing exactly into Russia's defenses. There's going to be something. We just haven't seen it yet."
Russian Army Launches Counteroffensive Near Vremovka Ledge - Official
Russian armed forces have launched a counteroffensive to push back Ukrainian army near the Vremovka ledge in the Zaporozhye direction, Vladimir Rogov, a senior official of the Russian-appointed Zaporozhye regional administration, said on Monday.
Earlier in the day, Rogov said heavy fighting was going on in the area, while Ukrainian forces managed to capture the settlements of Neskuchnoye and Makarovka.
"Currently, a counterattack has been launched by our guys – the 127th division is going into battle, going forward. At the same time, massive support is being provided by the Russian aerospace forces," he told the Russian Komsomolskaya Pravda broadcaster.
Rogov said that the objective of the counterattack is to drive Ukrainians out of the captured villages, adding that Russian artillery is "giving hell" there.
The Ukrainian government has been planning a major counteroffensive against Russia forces for several months. Ukrainian and Western military experts have repeatedly named the Zaporozhye Region as one of Kiev's main targets, as it would open the access to the Azov Sea and cut off the land corridor to Crimea.
Ukraine Loses 250 Military in Zaporozhye, South Donetsk Directions in Past Day
Ukraine has lost up to 250 military in the Zaporozhye and South Donetsk directions over the past 24 hours, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Monday.
Over the past day, the Ukrainian armed forces continued to attempt offensive operations in the South Donetsk direction.
In the area of the Vremovka ledge, the Vostok group of the Russian armed forces repelled three enemy attacks from the direction of the Donetsk People's Republic and in the Zaporozhye region.
"Over the past day, up to 250 Ukrainian military, five tanks, seven armored combat vehicles, two cars, an Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, and a D-30 howitzer were destroyed in [the Zaporozhye direction]," the ministry said in a statement, adding that Ukraine lose over 120 military in South Donetsk direction. The Russian military also repelled two attacks of Ukraine in the Donetsk direction, the statement said, noting that Kiev lost up to 140 military in the direction over the past day.
The ministry also reported that the Russian armed forces launched a missile attack with sea-based high-precision long-range weapons, targeting places of deployment of reserves of Ukrainian troops.
"[On Sunday night], the Russian armed forces launched a sea-based high-precision long-range weapon at the places of deployment of the Ukrainian armed forces' reserves. The designated objects were hit. The goal of the strike was achieved," the ministry said in a statement.
Special operation, 10 June. Main:
▪️Shoigu signed an order that defines the procedure for organizing the service activities of volunteer formations to increase their effectiveness as part of the Joint Group of Forces, said Pankov, deputy head of the Ministry of Defense;
▪️The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the Ukrainian troops continued unsuccessful attempts of offensive operations in the Yuzhno-Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions and in the Artemovsk region throughout the day;
▪️The department added that Kyiv lost up to 230 militants in the Zaporozhye and Yuzhnodonets directions in a day; in Kupian - up to 65, in Krasnoliman - more than 60, in Kherson - up to 40;
▪️The actions of four Ukrainian DRGs were suppressed in the Kupyansk direction, the Russian Defense Ministry noted;
▪️The defense department clarified that the Russian air defense systems shot down a Ukrainian MiG-29 in the DPR, 2 Storm Shadow cruise missiles and 10 HIMARS MLRS shells;
▪️Artillerymen of the Russian Federation destroyed 2 self-propelled Gvozdikas, 4 ammunition transport vehicles, a D-30 howitzer and 2 mortar positions of Ukrainian troops in the Krasnolymansk direction, Savchuk, the head of the press center of the Center group, told RIA Novosti;
▪️Strikes, presumably, by Storm Shadow missiles, were carried out by Ukrainian troops at temporary accommodation points on the Arabat Spit, a woman died, Acting Governor of the Saldo region said.
Special operation, 11 June. Main:
▪️The Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to attack the Russian ship Priazovye with drone boats, which controlled the security of the Turkish Stream and Blue Stream gas pipelines in the Black Sea, all 6 boats were destroyed, the RF Ministry of Defense reported
▪️As a result of negotiations, 94 Russian servicemen were returned from Ukrainian captivity, the military department said
▪️According to the Ministry of Defense, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost more than 360 military personnel during attempts to attack in the South Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Donetsk directions
▪️There are no agreements and prerequisites for negotiations between the Russian Federation and Kiev, Russia does not even see a flimsy foundation for building a dialogue, Peskov said.
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